Oil Economics

[badflash]

I did some research today and found a few very interesting things. We could well be in for more rough times.

As many of you know, Obama is attempting to shut down all off shore deep water drilling. A ban on production in the Gulf of Mexico is the next logical step. The "good" news is that the current depression has reduced energy consumption, so prices have not yet spiked as a result.

In 1979 I was just out of the Navy and working in a traveling job that required me to drive all over the East. I had to go from Washington DC, to Pittsburgh, to Boston quite often to provide training. This was the year that the Iran-Iraq war broke out and shut down Iranian oil production. Jimmy Carter was President. The war resulted in a deficit in US oil needs of only 3%. See http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=5210&type=0

The result was huge gas shortages where cars ran out of gas waiting in lines at the gas stations. Even & odd day gas rationing was dictated. I ended up stuck on the Turnpike waiting for midnight so I could gas up and continue my trip. Prices spiked and price controls were not lifted until the crisis had past. At the time US oil prices were limited to $6 a barrel with the world market at $30. Once the price controls were lifted the government instituted a "Wind Falls Profit Tax". This removed any incentive to increase domestic production.

Much is made about how Ethanol production can never replace oil. This is based on using corn as the only feedstock for ethanol production. The argument is also made that fuel should not be made from food and that the increase in Ethanol production resulted in the recent spike in food prices. All of this is disinformation. Lots of non-food sources can be used to make alcohol, but lets stick to corn for the moment. The recent spike in food prices was caused by the plumit in the value of the dollar. The spike in oil prices is much the same, along with speculators running the price up, nothing more.

In the USA, very little corn is actually eaten as corn. Check http://fatknowledge.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... ption.html (http://fatknowledge.blogspot.com/2008/06/us-corn-consumption.html)
and you'll see that less than 2% of corn in the USA is eaten in a form that you'd think of as corn! The largest use is as feed for cattle. 3% is used for high fructose corn syrup, and most will agree we shouldn't eat that at all.

Lets take the feed used for cattle. Cattle are supposed to eat grasses and shrubs, not corn. Cows have a hard time digesting starches. Most of the vet bills for cows are related to feeding them the wrong food. Many studies have been done on feeding cattle distillers grain vs. corn. Distillers grain is what is left over once corn or other grains have been used to produce alcohol. Here is the interesting thing. If you take a bushel of corn, you can produce 2.4 gallons of ethanol from it. If you feed cattle on what is left over, they will gain more weight and be healthier than if you fed them that same bushel of corn!

If we took the corn used for cows and made alcohol from it first, it would be enough to provide 10% of our current gasoline needs. Mixed with Gasoline at 10% no changes to your car are needed. If a 3% drop in oil supplies created the 1979 energy crisis, think what an increase in 10% would do, especially when it costs virtually nothing to do. Struggling farmers would get their feed for free by selling the alcohol at $2 a gallon.

I just don't see why this idea isn't being used. I have a flex fuel vehicle that can run on pure alcohol. The problem is that here in NY I can't buy E85 fuel unless I want to drive over 50 miles to get it. Go figure.

As for other sources of ethanol, just about anything that produces starch can be used. Cattails are one of the more exciting ones. These can be grown in sewerage effluents and will clean the water before going back to the river. They produce far more starch per acre than grain crops or potatoes. They require no pesticides or tilling. Just planting the wetlands that exist between the lanes of the interstates would provide about 25% of the domestic energy needs. There are huge areas that can be exploited for energy with no negative environmental impact, yet we do nothing.

[stucco]

Hemp is Earth’s number-one biomass resource; it is capable of producing 10 tons per acre in 4 months. Hemp is easy on the soil,* sheds its lush foliage throughout the season, adding mulch to the soil and helping retain moisture. Hemp is an ideal crop for the semi-arid West and open range land.

*Adam Beatty, Vice President of the Kentucky Agricultural Society, reported instances of good crops of hemp on the same ground for 14 years in a row without a decline in yield. Beatty, A., Southern Agriculture, C.M. Saxton & Co., NY; 1843, pg. 113. USDA Yearbook, 1913.

Hemp is the only biomass source available that is capable of making the U.S. energy independent. Ultimately, the world has no other rational environmental choice but to give up fossil fuels.
http://www.jackherer.com/chapter09.html

[swamp creek farms]

I made a speech in college on the legalization of hemp. Every one confuses it with marijuana. I still do not understand why it is illegal to grow. It can produce many of things. If I remember correctly one acre of hemp is equall to four or five acres of trees. That makes more sense to me than planting the farm I live on in pines. All they ever did with our pines is make pulp wood?!?!? What a waste .

There is an ethanol plant about 35 miles from here. Theres alot of corn being made into ethanol. Some farmers plant corn just to make silage. Which they feed there cows, fermented corn basically. There is some kind of plant that some folks are growing here that they use to make it too. Looks alot like sugar cane, but I cant think of the name.

It's basically moonshine right ? You can make that out of anything fermentable.

Check out on youtube. Converting engines into steam engines, using compressed air to run your car, mower, weedeater, whatever your running on an engine. Some good stuff to think about. :ugeek:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOqWzefvlfg

[badflash]

Hemp is Marijuana. The leaves are smoked, the stemp makes rope.

Silage is the corn stocks and leaves, not the seed. The juice from the leaves and stems will ferment. If distilled you get moonshine of sorts.

[JCO]

Cannabis sativa L. subsp. sativa var. sativa is the variety grown for industrial use, while C. sativa subsp. indica is primarily used for production of recreational and medicinal drugs.

The major difference between the two types of plants is the appearance and the amount of ?9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) secreted in a resinous mixture by epidermal hairs called glandular trichomes, although they can also be distinguished genetically.

Strains of Cannabis approved for industrial hemp production produce only minute amounts of this psychoactive drug, not enough for any physical or psychological effects. Typically, hemp contains below 0.3% THC, while Cannabis grown for marijuana can contain anywhere from 6 to over 20%.

In modern times, hemp has been used for industrial purposes including paper, textiles, biodegradable plastics, construction, health food and fuel with great success and less expensive to raise than any other agriculture crop.

In the past three years, commercial success of hemp food products has grown considerably.

Hemp is one of the faster growing bio-masses known to man, producing up to 25 tons of dry matter per acre per year, and one of the earliest domesticated plants known. For a crop, hemp is very environmentally friendly as it requires few pesticides and no herbicides.

Industrial hemp is produced in many countries around the world. Major producers include Canada, France, and China.

While more hemp is exported to the United States than to any other country, the United States Government does not consistently distinguish between marijuana and the non-psychoactive Cannabis used for industrial and commercial purposes. I'm up for it if anyone out there is interested in starting a movement to bring about a change in the law forbidding the agriculture of commercial hemp.

As for why nothing is being done in the US about anything....the open borders, Obama and his Mafia's antics, amnesty for illegal aliens and on and on...miss-direction and clouding the water. One minute it's the oil spill then it's Obama's effort to solve the problems between the Israelis and the Palestinians (which is none of our business as far as I am concerned), then it's some other bull manure....anything to keep our attention away from what is actually going on behind the scenes...like the new finance bill they just rammed through giving the Federal Reserve more power over the American people's money.

For one thing, the men of America that really care about this country are dying on foreign soil every day! It's an all voluntary military...I say it's time to reinstate the draft and get the dead beat young people off the streets and teach the some ethics and patriotism and how to keep their pants up around their waist where they belong!

Do you think those idiots walking the streets with their pants down below their ass are concerned about America; or those deadbeats that are on welfare; that were raised on welfare; that are raising another generation of welfare recipients that have never worked a day in their lives, do you think they care?

And those on unemployment aren't much better...I tried for 3 months to hire 5 people to work for my Public Insurance Adjusting Firm and interviewed over 70 people, a large number of whom were receiving unemployment benefits and couldn't get a single person to go to work at a job where they could start off earning well over $60k per year.

It's sad to say but Americans now days aren't the kind of people I knew 30 years ago.

I'm serious about the Hemp movement....anyone....? :mrgreen:

[davidstcldfl]

WOW JCO.....you really got fired up this time... :)
Lots of great points on hemp. I've seen hand lotion with hemp oil for sale. They must use the seeds for that (?)
I think it would be difficult to get, raising hemp legalized, without having the recreational/medical kind legal also. It would be too hard to tell the difference between the two ( for most folks.... :lol: )
I remember reading an article years ago....it was talking about how much taxes were collected in CA, just on the sales of paraphernalia alone. President Obama could have a ton of tax money then. Most people care more about 'Dancing with the stars' then what Obama and his cronies are doing. If people could smoke pot legally...they'd care even less !

As far as the welfare....yes, lets start the draft again, for one. Also, on-going random drug tests to be able to get welfare. Get hurt,go to the hospital with your welfare card, fail the drug test....too bad, you pay and you lose your welfare.
That's not un-fair....I have to take a drug test to get a job. If I get hurt on the job and fail the drug test, my boss (his insurance) doesn't cover me and I lose my job.

:lol: ....the guys with their pants down..... I have a friend that is a policemen in Orlando/Orange county....He says he doesn't mind, they can't run as fast, when they have to use their hands to hold up their pants !... :lol:

Israelis and the Palestinians.....No one, 'especially' Obama will ever stop the hatered that the Muslims have for the Jews. That's been going on for 1,000's of years. Clear back to the time of Abraham.
You might not consider it any of our business.....But,as more people and nations hate Israel (the Jews), the closer we (the world) are to the proverbial... ''stuff' hitting the fan"


Now, about that insurance job......Do you think an AC guy, that is tired of working outside in the heat, might have a shot ?... :D

[JCO]

David, I would love to have you work with me, but you live too far away for me to train you, I guess...how far are you from Jacksonville?

You have to do a 12 month apprenticeship before you can be licensed as a Public Insurance Adjuster, but if you work hard at it, the second year you can make over $100k easily...it's also recession proof because recessions don't control the weather. It's hurricane season...my time of year. PM me if you are still interested... Oh and don't sell us short on the commercial hemp thing...you never know if you don't try.

If you have everything to gain by trying and nothing to lose, then by all means try.... :mrgreen:

[tyrtaeus]

I did some research today and found a few very interesting things. We could well be in for more rough times.
On this, we're in entire agreement. Even the stock hawkers on the news are starting to fnd less and less to crow about, and the Vice President flat out said that there are a lot of jobs that are simply not coming back. Karl Denninger, who is a curmudgeon I admire, showed the symmetry in a stock chart from 2007 just before the crash to tis year, suggesting that if history repeats (or even if it rhymes), we're in for another big dip.

But to the point of the post:


As for other sources of ethanol, just about anything that produces starch can be used.
Burning food never seems like a smart thing to do, instinctively...

There are two dirty secrets on ethanol and biomass fuels that you didn't mention. First, the corn for cheap ethanol (or any other ethanol) is heavily subsidized with tax dollars. And cheaper Brazilian sugarcane ethanol is taxed prohibitively to keep it expensive enough so that locally produced ethanol can "compete".

The other is that the energy density in ethanol is drastically lower than for petroleum. They can write all of the laws they want, but the only thing that supercedes Constitutional Law is Natural law. And the laws of physics, et al, won't budge.

Of course I drive 40 miles to work each way because it pays better in the city, but my place outside the city allows me to have some snakes and lakes around. And, frankly, I'm simply selfish and don't want to live in a 10x10 cube even though large concentrated cubes of small apartments would be more efficent to heat, cool and power.

Conservation is the most efficient way to go. If there were four score of new nuclear reactors brought online that could power the rail infrastructure, it would be a big help: a lot of diesel is being burned with over the road trucking.

But it takes 30 years to get a reactor from approval to electricity, and even if it wasn't so long, there is a limited amount of uranium on the planet. And there are problems with where the uranium is, and what it is currently (or could be) used for. The waste disposal is a problem. PUREX reprocessing will help with waste, and hopefully the 50 years that nuclear energy buys us will allow solar efficiency to increase to the point that it's more feasible. And maybe get Mars Direct started to get some of our population out of this gravity well as the ultimate back up plan.

Sorry to thread hijack on my first post, all. :oops:

[davidstcldfl]

Hi tyrtaeus ....welcome.... :D

Happy to read your input... :) Just remember, this is the 'SUMP' section of the forum. This is for 'off-topics'.....some are funny, some are serious.
Hope you enjoy the aquaponic parts of the forum too.

[Emmett]

I knew that cows don't digest corn well, I didn't know they digest the waste corn from alcohol (ethanol) production better! That kinda changes the argument in favor of ethanol in my mind. I was mostly against it before. If you have a win win solution, take it. Even if it only gives you a small net energy boost, it's still a boost.

In this age of information overload you'd think that kind of thing would be more well known. The problem is that it takes too long (more than 4-5 sec) to explain how it works for the average ADHD person to take in the information. Nobody is listening because their brains are already full of the info they're given. They don't want to process more even if it is better or useful for them.

A really interesting tool for understanding how much energy we use and the options is Sustainable Energy - without the hot air (http://www.withouthotair.com/). If you ever want to look at how much energy each of the alternative fuels could potentially put out this is a very useful book to download (it's free to download) but I think the argument on ethanol doesn't take into consideration re-using corn mash from fermentation.

[badflash]

Ethanol burns much more efficiently than gas, so the energy density is made up by that. The loss in milage is no more than 10% but some tricks with vaporization can actually get you better milage than gas, especially if you take off all that pollution control crap that isn't needed with ethanol. Once you go above 50% ethanol in a flex fuel vehicle, the check engine light comes on. The reason? The catylitic converter goes out because it has nothing to burn!

I work in the nuclear industry. The new batch will be on line in under 10 years. The process has been streamlined. No one would build any new ones if they thought it would take 30 years. There are over 30 applications in the works for new nukes and a couple have broken ground for contruction. The economy is the biggest factor holding things back. Demand for electricity is down.

Breakthroughs have been made in making alcohol from cellulose. Once they crack that issue, ethanol will be very cheap, probably around 10 cents a gallon.

tyrtaeus - You must have missed the cost thing. Corn is not subsidized, but farming is and they pay you not to grow. They artifically keep the price of corn and grain high. Even at that, if you were going to pay $5 a bushel to feed cows, you can get $4.80 from the alcohol, and still feed the cows.

[stucco]

I’ve been pushing jack’s book for awhile now http://www.jackherer.com/chapters.html reading it will make you want to start a movement, but where do you start?
In my opinion, the long and short of it is…
Knowledge is key…people fear what they don’t know.
Like so many creatures, we are followers without understanding. …people fear what they are told to fear.
Complacency of mind easily becomes complacency in action…people fear change.
As Hunter S. Thompson said,“Never turn your back on fear. It should always be in front of you, like a thing that might have to be killed.”
How do you get a society of people programmed to believe that everything is alright… to wake up to what is really going on?
How do you get everyday 9 to 5ers to realize what they, their society, their friends, their government is doing is a detriment to the world on which we are feebly surviving.
With all of our so called technological advances, it’s funny sometimes how behind ancient civilizations we are. So, yes... we have cured diseases… and we have buildings that test our imaginations… and our computer age is sometime beyond belief- but what about the nature of things the earth provides. Free to those who are open to them- not the pharmaceutical companies who copycat and synthesis, but to those who seek to use what is offered in it’s natural state.
Humans have a tendency to believe we are the most important part of this cycle, but in the end… if we don’t wake up… we will just be another notch in the history of the earth’s belt. Seems to me the earth did just fine without us before, maybe we should take a lesson. History is full of great events thru the ages, but how many of them do you really remember ? Do we care? Generally not unless we believe it applies to us. Most people need an event in their lives to jumpstart their fight or flight mechanism. We need to realize the event is here and now…

[Big Al]

hi swamp creek, is the sugar cane type of plant called sorghum. and lets not forget about bio-diesels.

[badflash]

There is a thread on Camelina sativa, which is a very exciting new cash crop. 75 gallons of biodiesel per acre and the meal is a high protien feed high in Omega 3. It requires no tilling, fertilizer or watering. Grows on land you can't plant crops on, and it increases soil fertility similar to soybeans. Check it out.

[davidstcldfl]

Badflash, do you have a link to that ? Thanks.

[badflash]

Camelina sativa (http://www.diyaquaponics.com/forum/showthread.php?139-Camelina-sativa)

[davidstcldfl]

Wow, that does sound pretty prommising. Even Wikipedia gave it a good plug.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camelina_sativa

[Shas]

Anyone serious about ending the absurd marijuana prohibition
should join NORML.
THese good folks (Willie Nelson is the chairman,
and he is a leading and pro-active proponent of both liberty and agricultural fuels)
have been fighting the politicians and profiteers since the 1960s.

Many years ago I built the first modern earth-sheltered home in North Dakota.
I was driving a 3/4 ton Chev pickup with a 350 ci engine,
and burned nothing but the ethanol I produced for free in my solar powered still.
I was able to get spoiled grain from local farmers
by offering to clean out the moldy grain
from the edges and bottoms of their storage silos.
I never tasted a drop, because of the moldy grains I was fermenting,
but the 350 drank it without a hick-up.
Contrary to popular opinion I made no modifications to the truck at all;
no timing adjustments, no larger jets, nothing.

The only long-term problem I could see is the more rapid rusting of the exhaust system.

Gasohol is window-dressing, and fraught with all sorts of problems and expenses
but running straight ethanol (mine was only 60%) is cheap, easy, and sustainable.
Hemp is a great source of ethanol, as well as food and fibre.

BTW, did you know that plastic can be made from hemp?
Henry Ford made a car that was almost all from hemp,
including the bullet-proof windows!

[foodchain]

There's lots of alternative fuels. People have their reasons in liking or disliking each and every one of them. Look at the Chinese Tallow Tree, each seed has so much fuel in it you can light it with a lighter and let it burn intensly. Some states ban them as invasive and non native, but it's no more invasive than the Nandina shrub, which the majority of office buildings have planted around them. And that one has been PROVEN to be invasive.
Solar panels are not effecient enough to work for the average person. This is nothing new. HOA's and cities ban or restrict wind generators, even the small ones the average homeowner could make some use of. For those with ponds/waterfalls or streams there's a lot of work being done by the off grid/semi off grid crowd with DIY Hydro power. But the costs of building one, aren't practical for most people. Bio reactors/biomass reactors have application and the concept has been around for centuries, but I doubt it will be long before the clean air crowds start finding issues with this...I grew up in a logging/fishing town, and even in the 80's people were screaming about the pollution the pulp mill put off from it's STEAM!!!!!! People don't have to have facts or science to back up a claim. Pure sheep. Our current political structure is an excellent example..I will leave it there, as I don't want to distract from my point here. I looked at actually doing a biomass reactor as a bus. venture about 2 years ago. A hammer mill, and a pelletizing machine are not all that expensive. A bagging machine and labeler are not that bad either, and there's a market for it, but currently limited and mostly only for those that can produce tons per every couple of weeks. It takes a lot of pellets to = a ton. There's plenty of bio biproduct available even now to do this. The energy shortage/crisis is more by choice than by actual physical shortage. As the above stated/sited steam engines, hydro engines, hydrogen injection, biomass, etc. I also worked offshore as an underwater welder, so I know some of this first hand. Just because we are NOT allowed to drill in the gulf, doesn't mean the Mexicans, South Americans, or anyone else isn't or not already doing it. We have foreign drillers drilling not far off our shorelines, where we can't drill as our own legislation prohibits us, but allows them. Offshore drillers have to contain the excess natural gas that is a biproduct from drilling, this is costly and not effecient. The Mexican drillers burn it off, so much heat and fire coming off the rigs the tending vessels have problems getting in close enough for the man baskets to pick up from the cranes. The commercial fishing industry did the same kind of things in the NW. Feds have done the same thing with ordering soldiers into combat...we get ordered in, and then told not to return fire. Or better yet, have our guns taken away and given axe handles for crowd control. Been there, done that, and I got the scars. It's frustrating to constantly have the ability to fix an issue, resolve a problem, and constantly be hog tied by our own people. It's not going to change in my opinion until the pain of such actions is so great to us as country, and as a people that we force it to change, and re direct our priorities.

[foodchain]

I would/am for a change...a real change. But most movements I have seen, and most petitions I have been a part of in the end were a waste of my time...as they produced no results. But they always wanted funding from it's members. No matter what you contributed, they always wanted more.

[keith_r]

legalize it

[foodchain]

Legalize it, but tax it, and if you do something stupid with either type the consequences should be severe enough to motivate the next person a little more to stay on the straight.

[foodchain]

Many years ago I built the first modern earth-sheltered home in North Dakota.
I was driving a 3/4 ton Chev pickup with a 350 ci engine,
and burned nothing but the ethanol I produced for free in my solar powered still.
I was able to get spoiled grain from local farmers
by offering to clean out the moldy grain
from the edges and bottoms of their storage silos.
I never tasted a drop, because of the moldy grains I was fermenting,
but the 350 drank it without a hick-up.
Contrary to popular opinion I made no modifications to the truck at all;
no timing adjustments, no larger jets, nothing.

I have looked at methayne reactors for heat production in a greenhouse during the winter. Why couldn't the above stated power be used to heat a burner system, or gas stove inside a home or green house? It doesn't take much to run a burner. Same idea as the reactor, but the fuel can come from more options. Where do I find out how to build a solar still?

[Shas]

"It's not going to change in my opinion until the pain of such actions is so great to us as country, and as a people that we force it to change, and re direct our priorities."

Well, I guess that's what this "Occupy" movement is all about.
The pain has finally overcome the fear and inertia.
And they aren't looking for contributions, either.
Only participation.
It may be now or never.
And it's a great time to be eating from our aquaponics
and hydroponics and bioponics,
because those grocery stores might be empty tomorrow!

[Shas]

Where do I find out how to build a solar still?

I built mine in an afternoon
from instructions in The Mother Earth News.
I'm pretty sure they are still there.
At least, they were a couple of years ago.
I tried to look it up for you
but my dial-up connection is glacially slow
and just wasn't up to the job.
Try searching under "DIY" here
http://www.motherearthnews.com/Do-It-Yourself.aspx


If I was younger I'd be investigating HHO, Brown's Gas.
Using water for fuel is as cheap and 'green' as it gets!
Of course, burning ethanol is burning water-
my pick-up ran fine at 60& alcohol,
which means 40% water.

[foodchain]

I got into the hydrogen injection in cars a while back...those guys got in trouble in the NE though. And I dropped it. Not familiar with HHO. I am totally enamored with hydro power, like the water wheels used in grain mills, lots of you tube videos on how to build from scratch. But I lack the understanding of the placement of magnets for max return. My engineering skills only go so far. When the FDA, USDA, etc is forcing inspections on what we consume, and we in turn get sick from what we consume, it really makes you wonder how good they are? Remember these organizations and extensions of our government are here to protect us....from ourselves.

[Shas]

Yep.
GM foods are fine,
formaldehyde in meat is fine,
Aspartame is groovy,
but raw milk and marijuana are illegal.
Pretty screwed up.